{"id":22471,"date":"2026-07-16T13:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/will-ai-eliminate-pm-jobs\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T13:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:27:54","slug":"will-ai-eliminate-pm-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/will-ai-eliminate-pm-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Will AI Eliminate PM Jobs?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div itemprop=\"text\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Product Manager role as we know it will be obsolete by 2030.\u201d That is the conclusion of the <em>2026 CPO Insights Report<\/em>, a survey of 1,500+ Chief Product Officers. Some prominent founders, executives, and investors agree \u2014 AI is going to eliminate or drastically change the PM role as we know it.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But why? And how can we prepare for this impending doom?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this article I\u2019ll review 4 theories of AI PM displacement and assess how likely they are to occur:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Full automation of PM work\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>PM role delegation\/convergence\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Fewer PMs needed due to higher productivity<\/li>\n<li>Job market collapse<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Theory 1: Full Automation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this scenario \u201cPM agents\u201d or other AI-based systems will perform the role human PMs fill today.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Intuitively this is an unlikely scenario. Unlike translation, copyrighting, or coding, where language is the key medium and where there are many good examples to train on, a lot of product management happens in the \u201creal world\u201d and involves discussions, consensus building, and decision-making. It\u2019s hard to become good at these just by ingesting books, articles, and Reddit threads, as LLMs do.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s some new theory to support this assertion. Here are two models to predict AI job automation.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Model 1: Job Dimensionality\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Job dimensionality<\/em> (described in <a href=\"https:\/\/aleximas.substack.com\/p\/how-will-ai-driven-automation-actually\">this article<\/a> by Alex Imas and Soumitra Shukla ) is simply the number of different tasks involved in a job. A worker in a warehouse that performs a narrow set of tasks \u2014 picking, packing, sorting, pallet movement \u2014 has low job dimensionality, while a large company CEO position may have high dimensionality. Indeed warehouse automation is already in full swing, first with robots that work alongside the humans, and now with \u201cdark warehouses\u201d that require almost no human labor.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Product management is likely a high-dimensionality job.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the article:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cNow compare that to a knowledge worker, say, a management consultant. The job combines research, data analysis, client communication, presentation design, strategic reasoning, team coordination, and relationship management. That\u2019s at least seven or eight distinct complementary tasks. Claude or Codex might automate the first pass on the data analysis and slide deck creation, but the consultant is still needed for everything.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/pm-stereotypes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full-stack PM<\/a> does all of the above and more. This is good news, because a company is more likely to remove a job when it can automate <em>all<\/em> its tasks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But not all product managers\u2019 roles are as diverse. Specifically, the <em>delivery product-owner<\/em> whose job is to translate roadmaps into delivery-supporting artifacts such as backlog and user stories, has lower job dimensionality score and is therefore theoretically more susceptible to automation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there\u2019s a risk here of falling into <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Doorman_fallacy\">the doorman fallacy<\/a> (also explained below by Brady Heywood). Even the humble delivery PO is likely doing a lot more than first meets the eye. Mindlessly automating or scaling the role (1 PO doing the work of 5) is very likely to have negative effects both on the product and on the business.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p> <iframe title=\"What is the Doorman Fallacy?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9_l12-nmYQo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Model 2: Irreducible Complexity<\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Developed by Artificiality Institute, a a nonprofit research, education, and publishing organization specializing in AI, this <a href=\"https:\/\/journal.artificialityinstitute.org\/minds-for-our-minds-at-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">model<\/a> focuses on the 5 job elements that the authors argue \u201cresist automation\u201d:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Being there<\/strong> (Physical Situatedness) \u2014 How much the work requires a human body in a specific place, sensing and acting in real time.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Making hard calls<\/strong> (Contested Success) \u2014 How much the work depends on disputed, high-stakes decisions where someone must own the outcome.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Combining across fields<\/strong> (Multi-Domain Entanglement) \u2014\u00a0How much the work requires integrating several tightly connected domains at once.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Solving the genuinely new<\/strong> (Genuine Novelty) \u2014\u00a0How much the work involves framing new problems, not just solving known ones.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Taste (Aesthetic Judgment)<\/strong> \u2014 How much the work depends on judgment about what is good when no rule or metric can decide.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using these five dimensions the authors created the impressive sounding <em>Irreducible Complexity Index (IRX)<\/em> and scored dozens for professions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Complexity-index-962x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3641 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Complexity-index-962x1024.png 962w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Complexity-index-282x300.png 282w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Complexity-index-768x817.png 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Complexity-index.png 1000w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 962px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 962\/1024;\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/journal.artificialityinstitute.org\/minds-for-our-minds-at-work\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IRX: Irreducible Complexity Index as the Work of Humans<\/a> \/ Artificiality Institute<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Product managers are not included in the list, but it\u2019s fair to assume that we are somewhere in the <em>High-IRX knowledge worker<\/em> cluster, which is less likely to be automated away.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m sorry to pick on the delivery POs again, but their score is likely lower as they have narrower decision power and room for creativity. Still, they may not be as \u201cstructurally exposed\u201d as, say, accounts or compliance officers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conclusion: full automation of the PM role is unlikely. The more \u201cdimensionality\u201d (ie different types of tasks) and \u201cIrreducible complexity\u201d (on-the-ground human judgement and problem solving) the job entails the less likely it is to be replaced by AI.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Theory 2: Role Delegation\/Convergence<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to this theory, with AI designers, engineers, or managers\/founders can take over PM tasks, reducing the need for full-time PMs. The related hot buzzword of the moment is \u201cfull-stack builder\u201d \u2014 a do-it-all role that combines engineering, design, and product management. This is what the 2026 CPO Insights Report I quoted earlier predicts \u2014 full-time PMs will be replaced by product builders by 2030 (evidence: CPO crowd wisdom).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Going PM-less is not an entirely novel idea. A small but notable group of companies, including Airbnb, 37signals, Valve, and Linear in its earlier days, have been operating without dedicated classical product managers long before the launch of ChatGPT. The motives and models differ, but the underlying idea is similar: product responsibility sits with founders, senior leaders, designers, and engineers rather than with a separate PM role.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The thing is that the elimination of the role does not eliminate the work. Someone needs to do market research, strategy, prioritization, specification, experimentation, coordination, and outcome measurement. These companies have the size, culture, and hiring practices that support non-PMs doing these jobs, but that may not be true for your company. Do your engineers and designers have the skills, motivation, and bandwidth to do PM leg-work? Do your managers?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The opposite view is just as legitimate. <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/ai-pm-future\/\">AI-empowered PMs<\/a> can prototype, conduct user research, and even contribute production-level code, and are therefore more valuable. Some companies are realizing they need more PMs, not less (more on this below). AI-native companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI and Loveable are hiring PMs by the boatload.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-1024x373.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3652 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-1024x373.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-300x109.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-768x280.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-1536x559.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-2048x745.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-tiro-convergence-scaled.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/373;\"\/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In reality AI doesn\u2019t dictate just one clear convergence model. While AI-empowered trios will have more capability overlap, there\u2019s still much value in keeping the roles separate, especially in large organizations. 2-out-of-3 is a partial convergence model \u2014 for example the dev lead is also the acting PM, or the PM is also doing design. Finally we have the one-man-show full-convergence model typical of single-person companies. Now easier to do with AI, but still very niche for most companies.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of worrying about job titles, you\u2019re better off discussing how to best get things done in your particular context. In some cases, some traditional PM tasks will be handed out to non-PMs, and that\u2019s totally fine, while in others PMs will do things that were traditionally the domain of UX research and design. It\u2019s all OK as long as you\u2019re able to achieve the goals.<\/p>\n<div id=\"thrive-\" class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_symbol thrive-shortcode thrv_ tve_no_drag thrv_symbol_3160\" data-id=\"3160\" data-selector=\".thrv_symbol_3160\" data-shortcode=\"thrive_\" data-tcb-elem-type=\"\" data-element-name=\"\">\n<div class=\"thrive-shortcode-html thrive-symbol-shortcode \" data-symbol-id=\"3160\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-page-section tcb-mobile-hidden tcb-tablet-hidden\" data-inherit-lp-settings=\"1\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a149\" style=\"--tve-border-radius: 0px; border-radius: 0px; --tve-border-width: 0px;\" tcb-template-name=\"Product Rating 04\" tcb-template-id=\"5efc64ce2c10fe76f2269310\" data-keep-css_id=\"1\" data-form-settings=\"__TCB_FORM__{&quot;form_identifier&quot;:&quot;-form-ld2ktw&quot;}__TCB_FORM__\">\n<div class=\"tve-page-section-in tve_empty_dropzone \" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a14b\" style=\"\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-columns\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a14c\" style=\"--tcb-col-el-width: 561.234; --tve-border-width: 1px;\">\n<div class=\"tcb-flex-row v-2 tcb-resized tcb--cols--2\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a14d\" style=\"\">\n<div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a14e\" style=\"\">\n<div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a14f\" data-link-wrap=\"1\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a153\">\n<p data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a154\" style=\"\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\">Practice hands-on the modern methods of product management, product discovery, and product strategy. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\">Secure your ticket for the next\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ti.to\/itamar-gilad-events\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"\" style=\"outline: none;\"><strong><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\">public workshop<\/span><\/strong><\/a><br \/><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\">or book a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/itamargilad.com\/workshops\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"\" style=\"outline: none;\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\"><strong>private workshop<\/strong><\/span><\/a><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\"> or <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/itamargilad.com\/keynotes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"\" style=\"outline: none;\"><strong><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\">keynote<\/span><\/strong><\/a><span data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a155\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important; color: rgb(58, 58, 58) !important;\"> for your team or company.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a15f\" style=\"\">\n<div class=\"tcb-col\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper tve_image_caption\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a160\" style=\"\"><span class=\"tve_image_frame\"><a href=\"http:\/\/itamargilad.com\/workshops\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image tcb-moved-image wp-image-2251 lazyload\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2251\" width=\"163\" data-init-width=\"600\" height=\"163\" data-init-height=\"600\" title=\"brain fluid\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/brain-fluid.png\" data-width=\"163\" data-height=\"163\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 163px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 163\/163;aspect-ratio: auto 600 \/ 600;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1948324a161\" data-link-wrap=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/brain-fluid.png 600w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/brain-fluid-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/brain-fluid-150x150.png 150w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 163px) 100vw, 163px\"\/><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Theory 3: Fewer PMs Needed due to Higher Productivity<\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This theory postulates that with AI, one PM will be able to \u201csupport\u201d multiple product teams, meaning companies will need fewer PMs. It is a very attractive theory for efficiency-focused managers and CFOs (especially ones don\u2019t understand what PMs do).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The challenge is in defining \u201cPM productivity\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Measuring PMs by output \u2014 for example number of tickets submitted \u2014 is just as bad as <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/how-dev-productivity\/\">measuring engineers by lines of code<\/a>. AI can help generate product artifacts blazingly fast, but these can easily lead to bad features and products. In an ideal world, the requirements are bi-product of a much larger set of activities that determine what\u2019s the right thing to build: research, strategy, goal-setting, prioritization, idea validation\u2026 It\u2019s here that PM contribution is most important.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, at a time when engineers are able to generate code much faster, the demand for \u201cdeciding what to build\u201d grows larger, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/melissajeanperri_state-of-ai-in-product-2026-share-7450587582289125379-OK59\">several<\/a> companies are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lennysnewsletter.com\/p\/anthropics-1b-to-19b-growth-run\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reporting<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/hustlebadger.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ed Biden<\/a> captured the point beautifully in this diagram:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"506\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1783802485775.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3642 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1783802485775.jpeg 800w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1783802485775-300x190.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1783802485775-768x486.jpeg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/506;\"\/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Measuring PM performance or productivity is notoriously hard. <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1F1Y3YtjsvAJUZMqS-rK0LGQGg7eHYubq9KqedPwLCDE\/edit?gid=1755575210#gid=1755575210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PM job ladders<\/a> (source <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lennysnewsletter.com\/p\/product-management-career-ladders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Lenny\u2019s newsletter<\/a>) are full of qualitative attributes that are hard to measure:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Leadership<\/li>\n<li>Impact<\/li>\n<li>Scope<\/li>\n<li>Execution<\/li>\n<li>Communication<\/li>\n<li>Vision<\/li>\n<li>Strategy<\/li>\n<li>Collaboration<\/li>\n<li>Planning<\/li>\n<li>Technical skills<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m a firm believer that <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/ai-pm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AI can help PMs get better at all of these<\/a>, but it\u2019s unlikely to make PMs X times more productive or require fewer PMs.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(Sidenote: there\u2019s a big debate in economics whether higher productivity means fewer jobs \u2014\u00a0price elasticity and Devon\u2019s effect are often mentioned, but this article is long enough as it is.)\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Theory 4: Job Market Collapse<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Your job may be at risk not because of any systemic change AI creates, but simply because the AI bubble may pop.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sadly, this is the most plausible of the theories in this article (which is not the same as saying it will happen). There are indications that <a href=\"https:\/\/crazystupidtech.com\/2025\/11\/21\/boom-bubble-bust-boom-why-should-ai-be-different\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AI companies are overvalued<\/a>, that multi-trillion dollar investment in infrastructure <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sparklinecapital.com\/post\/surviving-the-ai-capex-boom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">will not pay off,<\/a> and that the financial market is extremely <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/stocks\/articles\/korea-stocks-jump-80-record-173110226.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">concentrated and exposed to AI<\/a>. Many are <a href=\"https:\/\/tdavenport.substack.com\/p\/ten-reasons-why-we-wont-see-productivity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">skeptical<\/a> of the big claims of productivity gains that justify all this investment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If investor excitement for AI grows cold (what Gartner calls the trough of disillusionment), VCs will freeze or roll-back investments, market investors will sell off AI-related stock (and later any tech stock), customers will stop buying AI products and later slash purchases across the board to conserve cash, AI companies, especially startups, will have to shut down, likely pulling with them the entire tech sector, causing even non-AI companies to shed headcount or close.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For perspective, the burst of the dot com bubble in 2000 caused the loss of around 400,000 IT jobs. The unemployment rate within the IT sector jumped from 2.2% in 2000 to a peak of 6.3% by 2002. The tech job market took 3-4 years to bounce back. Today, the size of the tech sector and the level of investment in AI are far larger, so the burst of the bubble may be even more spectacular (caveat: market conditions are also very different so we may not see the bubble burst).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re already seeing layoffs attributed to AI, but those are mostly by the big players who need to free money to invest in data centers and AI chips. At the time of the writing of this article there\u2019s still no sign of a crash or a slowdown.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"409\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-layoffs-1024x409.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3643 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-layoffs-1024x409.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-layoffs-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-layoffs-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AI-layoffs.jpg 1074w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/409;\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">source: https:\/\/layoffs.fyi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What can you do about it? Sadly not much. You can try to reduce your exposure by switching away from risky companies and next-gen projects to solid money-makers that are likely to be in demand even during a slowdown or a recession (but really, no one is safe). You can also try to make yourself more valuable by clearly contributing to revenue, but that\u2019s easier said than done for a PM. You can also try to diversify and deepen your PM skills \u2014 AI and other \u2014 so you\u2019re more attractive to your current or future employers (full disclosure: I <a href=\"http:\/\/itamargilad.com\/workshops\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">facilitate such courses<\/a>).<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Takeaways<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why are so many people saying the PM role is dead? Some are ideologues who for one reason or another dislike the idea of product management; others are seeking attention with \u201cAI killed X\u201d messaging; many are just repeating what sounds trendy and smart.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As always, reality is far more nuanced. AI is not after your job, and it didn\u2019t introduce a new paradigm that fundamentally changes the demand for PMs. If anything it\u2019s creating more need for figuring out the right things to build (at least in good companies), and more ways for PMs to contribute. The job is likely to evolve, but not die.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best thing you can do at this time is no different from any other time: optimize for creating high value for your users and your company. Aim to grow and build your product skills (AI and other). Keep track of the trends in the technology and the market, but don\u2019t let hype and trendy buzzwords distract you.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div id=\"thrive-\" class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_symbol thrive-shortcode thrv_ tve_no_drag thrv_symbol_2536\" data-id=\"2536\" data-selector=\".thrv_symbol_2536\" data-shortcode=\"thrive_\" data-tcb-elem-type=\"\" data-element-name=\"\">\n<div class=\"thrive-shortcode-html thrive-symbol-shortcode \" data-symbol-id=\"2536\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b38d9fd75\" data-style=\"cb_style_1\">\n<div class=\"tve-cb tve_empty_dropzone\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b38d9fd77\" style=\"\">\n<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element tve_empty_dropzone\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b38d9fd78\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965db9d566\"><strong>Join my newsletter to get articles like this\u00a0<\/strong><br \/><strong>plus exclusive eBooks and templates by email<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/ai-pm-jobs\/\">\n<p>Share with a friend or colleague<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/ai-pm-jobs\/?utm_source=tldrproduct\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThe Product Manager role as we know it will be obsolete by 2030.\u201d That is the conclusion of the 2026 CPO Insights Report, a survey of 1,500+ Chief Product Officers. Some prominent founders, executives, and investors agree \u2014 AI is going to eliminate or drastically change the PM role as we know it.\u00a0 But why? [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":22472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}