{"id":23883,"date":"2026-09-09T14:06:34","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T14:06:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/cracks-in-the-ai-thesis-part-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T14:06:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T14:06:34","slug":"cracks-in-the-ai-thesis-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/cracks-in-the-ai-thesis-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Cracks in the AI Thesis Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<p><strong><span>Dear Colleagues<\/span><\/strong><span>: Today\u2019s letter includes my monthly update of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ramp.com\/data\/ai-index\"><span>Ramp AI Index<\/span><\/a><span>, our flagship research using spend data from Ramp to track how American businesses are using AI. Last month, I wrote a post called Cracks in the AI Thesis, in which I presented my view that rising adoption of cheaper models and mediocre adoption of Fable 5, posed a threat to the model companies, which rely on rising business spend on frontier models. This post is an update with my latest thinking.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Extras from Ramp data:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><strong>I\u2019m hiring! <\/strong><span>Looking for an economist \/ economics-minded data scientist who has demonstrated experience producing economic research for across audiences.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Moody\u2019s:<\/strong><span> I joined Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics on his podcast Inside Economics to talk about the latest trends in AI adoption. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-ai-series-adoption-ramps-up\/id1559966912?i=1000788534818\">Apple Podcasts<\/a><span>, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/episode\/1RZsF5Q8WxtA77FrRBCULC?si=bb852f57fe7b4973\">Spotify<\/a><span>, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4XbrpkLqdAU&amp;list=PLKW0pR0wvAbo9I-zJTl03YeLGHk9u2tEO\">YouTube<\/a><span>).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>In August, Anthropic extended its lead in business AI adoption. 43.8% of U.S. businesses paid for subscriptions or tokens from Anthropic, up 0.34 percentage points month over month. OpenAI underperformed overall AI adoption, rising only 0.09 percentage points to 39.8% of businesses. In general, new AI adoption continues to grow but is decelerating. Technical sectors (information, finance, and professional services) lead adoption rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VP6H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fefc8ab72-9e8e-43ce-a498-8ee2a25f14cd_1960x1988.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VP6H!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fefc8ab72-9e8e-43ce-a498-8ee2a25f14cd_1960x1988.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VP6H!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fefc8ab72-9e8e-43ce-a498-8ee2a25f14cd_1960x1988.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VP6H!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fefc8ab72-9e8e-43ce-a498-8ee2a25f14cd_1960x1988.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VP6H!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fefc8ab72-9e8e-43ce-a498-8ee2a25f14cd_1960x1988.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>This chart shows median per employee per month AI spend for the top 1%, top 10% and median firm. This dataset is closely watched for a benchmark of where the typical firm\u2019s AI spend is going to land. Will the median firm today start to look more like a top 1% firm tomorrow?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>AI bulls expect spending to increase across segments, but growth is especially important among the top 1%, which drives the vast majority of enterprise revenues for the model companies. Last month, that number fell <\/span><strong><span>9.7%<\/span><\/strong><span> from <\/span><strong><span>$7,976<\/span><\/strong><span> to <\/span><strong><span>$7,205<\/span><\/strong><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"880\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/c9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:880,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:237065,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/i\/214806147?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BGND!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9425215-37cb-436e-a635-71eafafd6416_2536x1532.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong><span>Methodological note<\/span><\/strong><span>: Because the top 1% represents a small group of firms, its spending estimate is more volatile than our median and top 10% estimates. We also revised up July spending for the top 1% from approximately $7.4K to $8K per employee per month after additional July transactions entered our dataset. These results are also subject to change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>There\u2019s an innocuous explanation here. It\u2019s summer, and a lot of engineers take off in August. We\u2019ve similarly observed declines in AI spend around November and December. I wouldn\u2019t underrate this, but there are a few other factors that are driving AI spend down, and will affect all firms, even those outside of the top 1%.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1240\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1240,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:292495,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/i\/214806147?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sJQd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73b92ce9-e658-4828-9c90-8dc5d1d1fbac_2536x2160.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>First, the price of AI is coming down. OpenAI and Anthropic have both announced a series of price cuts over the last month. Our latest index tracking the effective price per million tokens shows that prices have declined <\/span><strong><span>41%<\/span><\/strong><span> to <\/span><strong><span>$0.68<\/span><\/strong><span> as of this week, down from the 2026 peak of <\/span><strong><span>$1.15<\/span><\/strong><span> in March.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>That would be fine, if AI companies are able to drive growth in the form of volume. So far, they have been. Unfortunately, that volume may not be large enough to counteract the effective decline in prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1211\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1211,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:453263,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/i\/214806147?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZD3e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ec1647-0505-4c52-b084-46cd487ad1b9_2800x2328.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>The models driving volume increases are relatively cheap, standard models like GPT-5.6 Terra and Claude\u2019s Sonnet series. Frontier models like Opus, Fable, and Sol drove <\/span><strong><span>45%<\/span><\/strong><span> of token share, up from the start of July, but down from a <\/span><strong><span>53%<\/span><\/strong><span> peak in August. We\u2019ve heard from businesses who are imposing company-wide defaults that reduce usage of frontier models, saying standard models are still highly performant and also more cost effective.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1318\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1318,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:215092,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/i\/214806147?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!X1Sr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8238080-0ca3-45e4-8599-093af1eb3047_2200x1992.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Finally, it seems these trends are not driven by adoption of open source models or Chinese models. While rising, open source adoption remains limited to a small segment of businesses on our platform. Only <\/span><strong><span>6.4%<\/span><\/strong><span> of AI spending businesses use them and <\/span><strong><span>3.6%<\/span><\/strong><span> of businesses overall (note, we measure using adoption of routing platforms, which also provide access to closed-models, so actual open source adoption is likely lower).<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png\" width=\"328\" height=\"312.4575163398693\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:4081,&quot;width&quot;:4284,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:328,&quot;bytes&quot;:13295489,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/i\/214806147?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9f92643-d714-402a-8fbd-00e14bb1b9aa_4284x5712.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sa60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ca389d-ad1e-401f-a5f6-f850ab5cfc40_4284x4081.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The McDonald\u2019s in Altadena has fast wifi and is a great place to work. January 2026 around 7pm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econlab.substack.com\/p\/ai-index-sept-2026?utm_source=tldrnewsletter\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear Colleagues: Today\u2019s letter includes my monthly update of Ramp AI Index, our flagship research using spend data from Ramp to track how American businesses are using AI. Last month, I wrote a post called Cracks in the AI Thesis, in which I presented my view that rising adoption of cheaper models and mediocre adoption [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":23884,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scannn.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}